Forecasting Swedish Stock Market Volatility and Value-at-Risk: A Comparison of EWMA and GARCH Models
In this study we compare different volatility models on their ability to forecast one day ahead volatility and value-at-risk (VaR). We compare five different GARCH specifications: GARCH, IGARCH, GJR-GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH, as well as EWMA, each paired with six different conditional distributions. These models are used to forecast volatility and VaR one day ahead using daily return data from the
