Filtyp
By using an integrated dynamic model we are able to reconstruct the supply and gold price of the past (1920-2010) and this is used to predict the future supply of gold to the market and to make a forecast of the goldprice 2010-2100. The model was validated against field data for the period 1920-2010 and it performs well. The model GOLD is implemented in the STELLA® software and the model described
Observations of the ultra-sharp-lined, chemically peculiar star chi Lupi taken by the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph in echelle mode are presented. Thirty-six intervals of the spectral region between 1249 and 2688 Angstrom are covered with resolving powers in the range 75,000-93,000. Line identifications are provided, and the observed spectra are compared with synthetic spectra calculated us
At low temperature, cell membrane functionality depends on adjustments of membrane phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) composition. We here test the hypothesis that previous exposure to copper (Cu) may deteriorate tolerance to freezing temperatures because of Cu-induced changes of PLFA composition of cell membranes in the freeze-tolerant earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra. Cu levels and freezing temperatur
Climate change and disasters pose a serious risk to sustainable development. In the South local coping strategies are an important element of adaptation to climate and disaster risk. Such strategies have arisen because of the limited assistance provided by urban actors and associated social security and governance systems. In contrast, in the North local coping strategies are comparatively poorly
The development of integrated pest management is hampered by lack of information on how insect pest abundances relate to yield losses, and how pests are affected by control measures. In this study, we develop integrated pest management tactics for Apion spp. weevils (Coleoptera: Brentidae) in seed production of red clover, Trifolium pratense L. We tested a method to forecast pest damage, quantifie
The growing interest in sustainable development indicators (SDI) has resulted in the development and application of various SDI frameworks in the past two decades. Identification and selection of “right” indicators with such frameworks are essential, in the sense that, it is the information from these indicators that will help policy and decision makers to better understand the efficiency, effecti
Within a UN Joint Programme titled “Enhancing the Capacity of Turkey to Adapt to Climate Change” a systems approach workshop was carried out in Adana, Turkey with broad stakeholder participation. The participants applied systems thinking approach, causal loop diagramming methodology and systems analysis to examine the potential impacts of projected climatic changes on natural ecosystems and socio-
In this paper we show that several metals, elements and energy resources are about to run into scarcity within the next decades, and most elements within some centuries. A new global systems model was assembled to analyse this scarcity as a continuation of the model used in the Limits-to-Growth World3 model. We show that this scarcity will lead to “peak wealth”, “peak population”, “peak costs”, “p
Over the past 20 years, the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) has increased dramatically worldwide. A positive family history of the disease is among the most established risk factors for CMM; it is estimated that 10% of CMM cases result from an inherited predisposition. Although mutations in two genes, CDKN2A and CDK4, have been shown to confer an increased risk of CMM, they account
This paper provides a systemic analysis of complex dynamic issues associated with resource use, scarcity and efficiency by applying systems thinking with respect to sustainability criteria. Casual loop diagramming methodology is adopted to create a conceptual model to better understand the interconnected patterns, cause effect relations and feedbacks between the three dynamic complex systems that
The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami hit coastal cities in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures of Tohoku Region devastating the energy supply system in the region. Electricity and fuel shortages caused severe problems in the city of Kamaishi varying from lack of mobility, communication, heating to reduced health conditions. This paper, aims to analyze the impacts of the earthquake and t
Risk and vulnerability assessments (RVA) are vital components of the work conducted by public agencies at different levels, as part of the processes for governing and managing risks in the society. In Sweden, public agencies at all levels are required by legislation to perform risk and vulnerability assessments within their respective area of responsibility. The present paper presents a study of h
The close linkage between iron (Fe) and phosphorus (P) suggests that changes in Fe speciation may have a strong effect on the bioavailability of P. At the same time Fe speciation in natural oxic environments is known to be affected by the presence of organic matter (OM), pH and total Fe concentrations, thus these parameters should also influence the Fe-P interactions. The main objective of the pre
The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods
Agricultural fertilisation increases crop yields but can cause environmental damage, thus reductions in inorganic fertiliser application have been advocated. Farmer usage of phosphate rock has declined over the last decade, which may lead to soil nutrient depletion that undermines future crop production. We investigated the long-term (55 years) effects of eight different inorganic fertiliser regim
A kinetic model of the fermentative production of lactic acid from glucose by Lactococcus lactis ssp. lactis ATCC 19435 in whole-wheat flour has been developed. The model consists of terms for substrate and product inhibition as well as for the influence of pH and temperature. Experimental data from fermentation experiments under different physical conditions were used to fit and verify the model.
